Zonal regularities of long-term climate changes on the Dnieper basin territory

  • V. Pichura
Keywords: climate, air temperature, precipitation, zonal patterns, Dnieper basin, multivariate statistics, modeling, GIS-technologies

Abstract

A directed climate change is one of the most important global challenges of the 21st century, which goes beyond the framework of scientific research and represents a complex interdisciplinary problem covering ecological, economic and social aspects of sustainable development in the world. Over the past 20‒30 years, the frequency and intensity of dangerous weather phenomena, which lead to significant economic damage, have threatened the stable existence of hydrogeoecosystems, as well as human health and life. The article presents a study of zonal (steppe, forest-steppe and mixed forest zone) patterns of long-term changes in climatic conditions over the past 200 years on the territory of the Dnieper transboundary basin using multivariate statistics and GIS technologies. For a compresensive analysis, assessment of series heterogeneity, determination of temporal and spatial patterns of formation and synchronicity of the dynamics of climatic parameters (air temperature, amount of atmospheric precipitation), the study applies the following methods of multivariate statistics: descriptive statistics, regression analysis, transformation of variables (T4253H-smoothen, method of difference integral curves of modular coefficients) and cross-correlation analysis. The results received show a rapid increase in the average annual temperature of the air in three physical and geographical zones by 1,0‒1,2 °C in the period from the late 80's to the present. The largest proportion of abnormal manifestations of temperature changes is observed in the steppes (34,9 %) and mixed forests (34,5 %), and the greatest probability of abnormal precipitation changes is observed in the forest-steppe zone (30,3 %). Long-term dynamics of intra-annual climatic changes reflect the occurrence of warming by2 °Cduring the first 10 months, and an increase in average annual precipitation by90 mmfor the period from May to October. As a result of spatial and graphic analysis, we have recorded a decrease in the seasonal temperature regime variation from west to east and a rising sinusoidal dependence of an increase in air temperature from the north-eastern (the river's source) to the southern part (the river’s mouth) by 2,6 times. Precipitation is distributed rather unevenly, its spatial trend-cyclic increase occurring from the southern (409 mm) towards the northern (660 mm) parts of the transboundary basin. The application of multivariate statistical techniques allowed creating spatial functions of the distribution and provision of heat and moisture for the hydrogeoecosystem of theDniepertransboundary basin (with a correlation of 0,59‒0,99). The results and approaches to the multidimensional processing of meteorological data presented can be used for spatial and temporal research on long-term regularities of changes in the state of hydrogeocosystems of river basins under the conditions of global climate change, as well as for the formation of programs of adaptive spatial and temporal basin nature use.

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Published
2017-09-27
Section
Agricultural sciences (agronomics, agricultural ecology, land reclamation, ecology, crops husbandry, farming)